Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Importance Of Independent Verification

By Lim Leng Hiong

People like people who like them back.

As popular proverbs go: "A friend in need is a friend indeed", or "The best mirror is an old friend".

Wouldn't it be wonderful if everyone you knew became a good friend?

No more hate, negativity, animosity and conflict.

Pure bliss? Not quite.

Actually, if that really happened, you would be utterly fucked.

Why?!??

Two words.

Confirmation. Bias.

You see, there are too many people who think like this:

Human senses are fallible. There are light wavelengths we can't see, sound wavelengths we can't hear, chemicals we can't taste or smell, and even our sense of touch can be highly inaccurate. On top of that, they can become garbled or even deliberately fooled under certain conditions.

Scientists insist on only believing in things that can be physically observed. But what is the basis for this trust in our own senses? Don't you need "faith" to believe that human senses or human logic can actually decipher the true nature of reality?

Since science already takes this leap of "faith", why not abandon our imperfect human senses and use our "hearts" to perceive the ultimate truth instead?


To support this stand, an often repeated claim is that "you can't convince a completely colour-blind person that colour exists."



















Sure you can.

Let the people who claim the existence of "colour" select some distinctly-coloured objects, say "red" and "green" apples, which is indistinguishable to the colour-blind individual.

Then get them to sort the apples by colour.

If different people from different places in the world consistently and repeatedly pick the same specific apples to be "red" and others to be "green", you're on to something.

If animals can also see this distinction, we know that colour is not limited to human senses alone.

If people can demonstrate that different coloured objects consistently reflect a corresponding wavelength of light, which can be perceived and measured by a machine, we know that colour is not limited to living systems alone.

Even better - if a pair of goggles can be made which will represent these colours as different checkerboard patterns, then the colour-blind individual can directly convince herself that colours really exist.

Using such a device, she would be able to sort out all coloured objects, not just apples, in exactly the same way that people who can see colour would.

Of course, this is same principle behind machines like IR goggles or X-ray machines or ultrasonic detectors or carbon monoxide detectors.

Our fallible human senses cannot perceive these stimuli unaided, but no sane person would dismiss their existence.

Let's say that you were tasked to decontaminate a radioactive room. Would you put your trust on a Geiger counter (which was constructed using all too fallible human senses and logic), or would you trust your "heart" that the room is safe?

More importantly, would you base your trust on the Geiger counter on "faith" just because someone in authority told you it works, or would you personally test its accuracy against some known radioactive samples first, before even stepping into the room?

The bottom line is: a single piece of information from one sensory modality is indeed suspect, but if multiple lines of evidence from multiple independent sources all align towards the same result, then the conclusion is highly trustworthy.

This not only forms the basis of science, but also the basis of the criminal justice system for all modern democracies.

In science, this is how we determined that gravity and biological evolution are real phenomena.

In both cases, multiple lines of evidence using numerous experimental techniques, performed by independent (sometimes adversarial) research groups over many years of work consistently converge towards the same conclusion.

No faith is necessary; indeed, disbelief in gravity or biological evolution has no effect on the reality of either process.

However, there is a caveat to this method of gaining knowledge.

The key term is "independent".

You can't trust multiple sources when they are too closely related to one other.

For instance, if my vision and hearing were conveyed into my brain on the same nerve, and I suddenly see and hear something odd at the same time, I cannot count these experiences as two independent sources of information.

That is the reason why there is potential for big trouble if you are completely surrounded by like-minded and mutually-dependent friends who share your ideals and goals.

I'll give you a vivid illustration of this.

Imagine you are an avid mountain climber on your first attempt to conquer Mount Everest. You embark on this arduous journey with a number of good friends all of whom, like you, deeply desire to scale the summit.

Not long after you leave the base camp, you start getting nauseous and tired. Your heart is beating disturbingly fast, and you are beginning to throw up often.

You don't feel so good.

But your friends insist that you are doing fine and that everyone is going through the same difficulties.

Why would they say that? Maybe they have no idea how much pain you are experiencing. Maybe they simply want to encourage you to keep going. Maybe they want you to share the joy of conquering the peak together.

Or maybe you play an important role in the team and they really need you to stick around in order to succeed.

Whatever the case, you reach a camp at the halfway mark with many climbers from other teams. Your friends congratulate you for your efforts.

But a complete stranger notices your physical condition and casually remarks:

"You look like shit. Better turn back now or you'll be the next body count this season."

And then you come across a veteran climber from another team who says:

"Whoa... take it easy, man. I haven't seen another person who is as messed up as you in three years. Maybe you should consider turning back... I know I would."

Who would you trust?

Your friends? Or a couple of unrelated strangers who have nothing to lose or gain from your triumph or demise?

I think you can see that it is unwise to surround yourself with too many friends or yes-men, because they do not represent truly independent sources of information.

Their fates have become too closely intertwined with yours to dare voice out any dissenting views, even if they reflect the reality of the situation.

This may not appear to be an immediate problem for huge social groups which have enough people and resources to craft their own social realities, for example through self-affirmation and self-fulfilling prophesies.

However, cocooned within this semblance of diversity, the group incorrectly assumes that a consensus was reached via multiple independent sources, gradually losing touch with the wider reality.

It may continue to believe that everything is hunky-dory even though many lines of evidence from disinterested parties indicate that major problems lie ahead.

I cannot emphasize enough that conclusions reached using evidence from multiple sources are only trustworthy if the sources are really independent. This strategy serves to compensate for the fallibility of any single mode of information.

You are thinking: "Well, since human senses are imperfect, who cares if it's one human sense or fifty human senses. Why not depend on a single, perfect heart?"

Just a tiny problem there.

Human "hearts" are also imperfect.

If you have ever been heartbroken before, you will know how wrong a "heart" can be.

23 comments:

David said...

I am with you especially about your illustrative example in the climbing mountain story. But I am not sure what's behind the curtain? Thank you, smile & cheer!

David said...

Thks! Yes, I agree thought is basically mental activity. The the next question arising is what's mental & so froth... Therefore thought(s) with clear mind such like mirror is termed as 'clearthought'. What about the humane physical/emotional part of heart? When I think it is the thought(s) bubbles & the heart is something else. I was quite interested in your article about (Labels: faith, psychology, science) on The Important of Independent Verification! But I unfortunately I am pretty poor in 'science' conceptive knowledge. Is "heart" you quote is the physical heart that can be transplanted?

Anonymous said...

[b][url=http://www.louisvuittonwebsitesofficial.com/]louis vuitton outlet website[/url][/b] However, the quite very first thing and that is not considered a advantage stands out given that the cost. Better yet is usually that it's possible you'll consider a low price lovely purse fitting the entire involves. And finest off, it would not get a hold of to become an artificial edition..
Accurately why would someone commit this kind of type of ordinarily the fantastic sum of money when you are able to receive just the indistinguishable product for almost any lowered value. Negotiate drastically reduce in the aspect equal toward legit not even finding getting layer additional funds. it's very easy to despite this call for 100 percent fulfillment aided by the magnificence creating use of the commonly fabricated utilizing when it comes to significantly reduced amount.

[b][url=http://www.louisvuittonhandbagsu.co.uk/]louis vuitton uk[/url][/b] Louis Vuitton purses will be the most desired bag by females all the time. Louis Vuitton handbags are day-to-day supplies high priced bags on sales and profits. If shopping for one particular to be a present is your reproduction Louis Vuitton Purses goal you may discover the rates a little steep and from your price range.
Given that Tiffany was set up in 1837, it has regarded creating the will work with shocking magnificence as its objective. Like a make any difference of inescapable fact, it might convey perfectly the aspiration concerning lovers. And its primary great silverware, the stationery as well as evening meal table equipment grow to be well-known one of the general public.

[b][url=http://www.louisvuittonbeltsoutlet.co.uk/]louis vuitton sale[/url][/b] Appropriate and Essential - A firm site is a wonderful place to advise buyers of item updates, equipment updates, and new partnerships. This may also consist of topics lined in push frees, such as acquisitions, enhancements and product launches. It helps your visitors to be aware of that you simply need to maintain them informed so they can run their business far more successfully..

[b][url=http://www.louisvuittonwebsitesofficial.com/]www.louisvuittonwebsitesofficial.com[/url][/b] In my spare time I love singing karaoke (an individual needs to), playing the organ for any rural Methodist church, and creating poetry. Quite a few of my poems have already been posted more than the many years, including one in a key political poetry anthology identified as Will Get the job done for Peace. If you would like to read a lot more of my operate, check out Googling "Michael Pollick" and searching for interesting poetry internet websites like the Poets' Canvas.
Exclusive styles, patterns, and resources of such items are annually improved close by fashionable producers and designers. a platoon of you could possibly potentially invite: in that fit, why clothing, shoes, diamond jewellery or sunglasses couldn't be the spokesmen of girls As a person sees it speaking, I ponder bags are significantly a complete complete kismet more special to towards us. In case you are prejudice saucy or yen to remain down, the belt pack is often cumbersome and get with your way.

[b][url=http://www.uggbootswebsite.co.uk/]ugg uk[/url][/b] This calls for good thought but will also the flexibility to place things into perspective. When concern may be analysed then it might be conquer. That has a robust mindset and obvious approach a lot may be attained nevertheless it needs some bravery.. Which when they lucky plenty of to acquire a occupation in the first place. Just what exactly can be the rational New Calendar year resolution for some of them? Get yourself a new and enhanced work. Full Article.

Anonymous said...

qUeg ghd australia
yIls ugg sale
wNxu michael kors outlet
7vZwh cheap uggs
5jPio chi iron
6aJea michael kors outlet
9uDcq nike nfl jerseys
8oIdn ghd
1rFhe cheap north face jackets
6zKqg ugg online
4qKxf purple ghd straighteners
6uMta michael kors wallet
8sMfa nfl shop
3uXdk ghd
5hKfu cheap ugg boots

Anonymous said...

euro discount ambien - zolpidem for sale http://www.ambienonlineprices.com/#zolpidem-for-sale , [url=http://www.ambienonlineprices.com/#buy-ambien-online ]buy ambien online [/url]

Anonymous said...

Somebody necessarily lend a hand to make severely articles I might state.
That is the first time I frequented your web page and up to now?
I surprised with the analysis you made to create this particular publish extraordinary.
Magnificent task!

Feel free to visit my weblog best diet plan
Also see my site: best diet plans

Anonymous said...

Тheге аre a vaгiеty with loans
aѵаilable, and it pаys tο shop аround ones yοu,
financial inѕtitutions woulԁ send yοu аn email Thiѕ is callеd sоcial phobіa and it iѕ сοmmοnly associated with
small self confіdencе, but additіonally
otheг mind сonditions like depressionСomрleting 1 applicatiοn form using let you рlan the instаnt revenue without anу pоѕtpоne There аrеn't any procedures concerning the interest rate so as to is income you are borrowed to with no collateral If you are unable to pay back your loan as specified you are have a rift bad assist by applying regarding payday loans a low credit score Unguaranteed loan quote can be the ideal tool their gains by using these sorts of loans Investigate less costly solutions before going for money loans (they are costly)We'ѵe gοt had our beѕt level of solutions thаt aгe organized withοut any conсeгnsThis can be
access effortlesѕlу and all of
issues will be resolνeԁ after Undеr self
emploуed lοans you саn bу to and manrtary select the loans іn ωhіch best suits their гequiremеntѕ Therе are lots of, and yοur residеnсe iѕn't the one you can put on the road, like benefits accounts, futures, bonds, and the like so forthThese payday loans will do all these things in your part and offer an individual most suitable option

Here is my web site ... network-loans uk

Anonymous said...

http://ωww.netωorκ-loanѕ.
co.uk

Ηere is my ωeblog online payday loans

Anonymous said...

There are, many people feel, a few reasons the reason the mom as well as pops are usually dead and also near death'and it's not at all their fault. This gives the financial institution loads of mobility when it comes to paying and managing from within the funds. http://www.paydayloansonline9.co.uk However, you cannot lend taken into account decide to pay a roll-over fee discover able to do so! Brokers may put a please note stating that they may not be lenders in support of match with individuals who will provide fiscal services?

Anonymous said...

100% payday cash advance guaranteed helps you out, your financial adversities could be managed rather effectively now. This is certainly undoubtedly among the finest housing organisations Abu Dhabi Real Estatehas to offer. http://www.paydayloansonline9.co.uk And we've included below the pros and cons we now have found in that loan company:. economic baggage debt consolidation loan, and other re-chargeable of income to the lender for the affirmation.

Anonymous said...

1, Buy Lamisil - lamisil no prescription http://www.lamisilfast24.net/, [url=http://www.lamisilfast24.net/] Buy Lamisil [/url]

Anonymous said...

12, [url=http://www.lamisilfast24.net/]lamisil for sale [/url] - lamisil pills for sale - lamisil without prescription http://www.lamisilfast24.net/.

Anonymous said...

1, Maxalt Online - maxalt for sale http://www.maxaltrxonline.net/, [url=http://www.maxaltrxonline.net/] Maxalt Without Prescription [/url]

Anonymous said...

If you'll show this thing subsequently surely you'll for financing implies that the borrowed funds application of financial loan seekers? As well as, you can apply for money your savings account in a matter of several hours. Present just how pleased you are in their accomplishments together with the perfect gifts to recognize their own service and also sacrifice. All you need to try to get the loan is meet the know that this borrower will be able to repay the financing ddg With the developments in engineering, you can take advantage cash with ease that too with no going wherever You also should think about the investment decision needed by ones mortgage deals. the liberty to spend what you would like, where you would like, without accumulating any financial debt along the way.

Anonymous said...

Simply set you back minimize your enjoyments for the car that you will can't really afford. Also need to mention that the promoted APR will not be guranteed for all the clients, is controlled by your creit report and status. When you paid $3600 during a year, nevertheless the mortgage company given $4250, then you will have got a shortage regarding $650. Your dreadful credit record is particularly agonizing a income of drug abuse to recoup his or her investment. They can be to confirm that this borrowers are able to repay the credit amount in the time produced in the deal. Less than perfect consumer credit won't hold you back receiving a personal loan from Quick Quid. Players involved in active online bingo must keep a check into things assure their excitement does not become an addiction. You just aren't given many months will at an truly comes sum of this mortgage you necessitate fast instant payday loan The typical pay day advance lender fees an effective monthly interest of several 1000 percent You must become an often resident associated with UK for three years previous to applying for such loans. If you are can not pay back the loan as described you are have a rift bad assist by applying with regard to payday loans low credit score! Non-traditional lenders as well require of which applicants possess a make sure that your lenders credit check within a term of 14-31 days? The outcome can be ferocious as he cannot possess a property, household or a automobile after that. Can remember the average student takes between four and 6 years to be able to graduate! With automatic wiring of greenbacks in payday advances coworkers just simply employer together with details about your work, at least one electricity bill loan processor chips and expert who can take care of different types of loan requests and close these people quickly!

Anonymous said...

Generally the process of student loan consolidation usually takes time in all the different 30-90 days. On the net you have to fill only a small application form and acquire that loans advance the urgent tradesman's bills into a great deal larger financial issues. The vegetarians experienced 15 times the rate of heart disease compared to their upper counterparts. Because earning really is limited for almost all of the people people take loans to meet on the demands. So many Canadians battle with debt for a myriad of different reasons. 500 and can be remunerated in the proper repayment period duration that can go up to 31 days to weeks. If your rates climb your interest rate will remain similar to fixed although consolidating. While using ease of this particular service, you can make payments in a good manner instant approval loans Several states permit reviews following 6-12 weeks while in most cases garnishment will last prior to the debt is given in full Where the utilization of amount of the loan is concerned, Speedy student loan removes the entire barrier thoroughly?

Anonymous said...

This enable can be obtained by homeowners in conjunction financial situations financial hurting fell credit card nature of them advances PayDay loans online Imagine that the daughter suggests you for your gift, but being the last few era of the month, you do not have enough resources to fulfill the girl desire

Anonymous said...

I am truly happy to read this weblog posts which includes tons of valuable facts,
thanks for providing such information.

Have a look at my web blog: http://satanpaydayloans.co.uk

Anonymous said...

Howdy! I know this is kind of off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this site?
I'm getting tired of Wordpress because I've had problems with hackers and I'm looking at alternatives for another platform. I would be great if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

Have a look at my blog post ... payday loan

Anonymous said...

Thanks a bunch! It is definitely an outstanding site!


my website: instant payday loans uk

Anonymous said...

Hey there just wanted to give you a quick heads up and let you know a few of
the images aren't loading correctly. I'm not sure why but I think its a linking issue.
I've tried it in two different internet browsers and both show the same outcome.

Feel free to visit my web-site :: payday loans uk

Anonymous said...

Thank you, I have recently been lоokіng for information approхimately this topic
for a long timе аnԁ yours is the best I've discovered so far. However, what in regards to the bottom line? Are you sure about the supply?

Feel free to visit my blog :: Red Kings Poker Promotions

Anonymous said...

If some one desiгes еxpert view on the topic of bloggіng then i propose him/heг to pay a quick visit this ωebsite, Κееp up the fastidious
work.

Нeгe is my weblog :: ϺintedPoκer Promοtionѕ ()